[Year 12 IT Apps] For 2016 - Evaluating data sources for the hypothesis

Sun Jun 21 13:37:20 AEST 2015

We used the Delphi technique (an example of which you quoted about the
submarine) when I was a forecaster with Telecom. We are now living in the
scenario our experts discounted as not likely i.e. increased working hours
and the security/surveillance state!

Tossing a coin works half the time.

Just musing!

Laurie

Laurie Savage
https://sites.google.com/a/pvgc.vic.edu.au/mr-savage/home

On 16 June 2015 at 22:03, Roland Gesthuizen <rgesthuizen at gmail.com> wrote:

> Actually back in 2008 I had the chance to hear a speaker at an ISTE
> conference of his book who spoke about when the US Navy wanted to find the
> wreckage of the submarine Scorpion but it didn’t have enough evidence to
> produce a reasonable search zone.
>
> "Then naval officer John Craven had an idea: He gathered together a wide
> group of individuals with different talents, from math to salvage to
> submarines. He then asked them to bet on the submarine’s location. He
> compiled all of the bets and came up with a group average. The submarine
> was found an amazing 220 yards from that location.”
> http://www.continuityinsights.com/articles/2012/12/harnessing-wisdom-crowds
>
> When I read the elements of what makes for a wise crowd,
>
> • Diversity of opinion: Each person should have private information, even
> if it’s just an eccentric interpretation of the known facts.
> • Independence: People’s opinions aren’t determined by the opinions of
> those around them.
> • Decentralization: People are able to specialize and draw on local
> knowledge.
> • Aggregation: Some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a
> collective decision
>
>
> it was humbling to note that this is probably what makes this mailing list
> feel like a wise gathering of friends instead of a forum for disagreeable
> and grumpy people like Statler and Waldorf from the Muppets. Contribute to
> the wisdom of friends at the DLTV DigiCon conference next month :-)
>
> <http://www.meetup.com/20-40-Friendship-Club/>
>
> --
>
> *Roland GESTHUIZEN*http://about.me/rgesthuizen
>
> On 16 Jun 2015, at 9:13 am, Laurie Savage <08327998 at pvgc.vic.edu.au>
> wrote:
>
> I've always been dubious about the "wisdom of crowds" since seeing Leni
> Riefenstahl's movie about the Nuremberg rallies.
>
> Laurie
>
> Laurie Savage
> https://sites.google.com/a/pvgc.vic.edu.au/mr-savage/home
>
> On 15 June 2015 at 19:59, Roland Gesthuizen <rgesthuizen at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> In the end, the system worked and the hoax was deleted. Wikipedians are
>> getting better at uncovering hoaxes. If it survived for so long as an
>> obscure page without any sources, it is just hibernating until somebody
>> pokes it with a stick or flags it for removal. There is even a wikipedia
>> page about this:
>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliability_of_Wikipedia
>>
>> Anyway don’t take the front page entirely at face-value. Here are two
>> things that I point out to my students:
>>
>> 1. the discussion page shows up any controversy and the community around
>> a topic. Often this flags issues in this topic that you need to be careful
>> about. Just click on the talk tab.
>>
>> 2. the list of references and external links at the bottom are sometimes
>> better than the article. If there are none then these should ring some
>> alarm bells.
>>
>> Many years ago I started the wikipedia page for an early native
>> Australian cricketer. Top bloke and sportsman. The changes made to this
>> page from my early version speaks volumes for how the "truth” about his
>> life was changed and appropriated as the cultural context and world changed
>> around him. Its a fascinating story i’ll share at the DLTV DigiCON
>> conference next month to anybody who asks.
>>
>> Registration is open now folks. Click here for details:
>> https://dltv.vic.edu.au/dltv-annual-conference-2015
>>
>> —
>>
>> *Roland GESTHUIZEN*http://about.me/rgesthuizen
>>
>> On 24 May 2015, at 2:20 pm, Mark <mark at vceit.com> wrote:
>>
>> Hi, data-gatherers
>>
>> Next year, students will need to find reliable data to support their U3O2
>> hypothesis.
>>
>> Obviously, most will start with Wikipedia.
>>
>> Here's an enlightening article you might want to acquaint them with...
>>
>>
>> http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2015/04/15/the-great-wikipedia-hoax/
>>
>> --
>>
>> Wikipedia says I'm handsome. Who am I to disagree?
>>
>> Mark Kelly
>> mark AT vceit DOT com
>> http://vceit.com
>>  _______________________________________________
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>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
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>> IT Applications Mailing List kindly supported by
>> http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/vce/studies/infotech/itapplications3-4.html -
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>> Teachers Association Inc <br>
>> http://www.swinburne.edu.au/ict/schools - Swinburne University
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> http://www.edulists.com.au - FAQ, resources, subscribe, unsubscribe
> IT Applications Mailing List kindly supported by
> http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/vce/studies/infotech/itapplications3-4.html -
> Victorian Curriculum and Assessment Authority <br>
> http://www.vitta.org.au  - VITTA Victorian Information Technology
> Teachers Association Inc <br>
> http://www.swinburne.edu.au/ict/schools - Swinburne University
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> http://www.edulists.com.au - FAQ, resources, subscribe, unsubscribe
> IT Applications Mailing List kindly supported by
> http://www.vcaa.vic.edu.au/vce/studies/infotech/itapplications3-4.html -
> Victorian Curriculum and Assessment Authority <br>
> http://www.vitta.org.au  - VITTA Victorian Information Technology
> Teachers Association Inc <br>
> http://www.swinburne.edu.au/ict/schools - Swinburne University
>
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