<div dir="ltr">We used the Delphi technique (an example of which you quoted about the submarine) when I was a forecaster with Telecom. We are now living in the scenario our experts discounted as not likely i.e. increased working hours and the security/surveillance state!<div><br></div><div>Tossing a coin works half the time.</div><div><br></div><div>Just musing!</div><div><br></div><div>Laurie</div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br clear="all"><div><div class="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div>Laurie Savage<br><a href="https://sites.google.com/a/pvgc.vic.edu.au/mr-savage/home" target="_blank">https://sites.google.com/a/pvgc.vic.edu.au/mr-savage/home</a><br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
<br><div class="gmail_quote">On 16 June 2015 at 22:03, Roland Gesthuizen <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:rgesthuizen@gmail.com" target="_blank">rgesthuizen@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div style="word-wrap:break-word"><div>Actually back in 2008 I had the chance to hear a speaker at an ISTE conference of his book who spoke about when the US Navy wanted to find the wreckage of the submarine Scorpion but it didn’t have enough evidence to produce a reasonable search zone.</div><div><br></div><blockquote style="margin:0 0 0 40px;border:none;padding:0px"><div>"Then naval officer John Craven had an idea: He gathered together a wide group of individuals with different talents, from math to salvage to submarines. He then asked them to bet on the submarine’s location. He compiled all of the bets and came up with a group average. The submarine was found an amazing 220 yards from that location.”</div><div><a href="http://www.continuityinsights.com/articles/2012/12/harnessing-wisdom-crowds" target="_blank">http://www.continuityinsights.com/articles/2012/12/harnessing-wisdom-crowds</a></div><div><br></div></blockquote><div>When I read the elements of what makes for a wise crowd, </div><div><br></div><blockquote style="margin:0 0 0 40px;border:none;padding:0px"><div><div>• Diversity of opinion: Each person should have private information, even if it’s just an eccentric interpretation of the known facts.</div></div><div><div>• Independence: People’s opinions aren’t determined by the opinions of those around them.</div></div><div><div>• Decentralization: People are able to specialize and draw on local knowledge.</div></div><div><div>• Aggregation: Some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective decision</div></div></blockquote><div>
<div style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Helvetica;font-size:12px;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px"><div style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Helvetica;font-size:12px;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;word-wrap:break-word"><br></div><div style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Helvetica;font-size:12px;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;word-wrap:break-word">it was humbling to note that this is probably what makes this mailing list feel like a wise gathering of friends instead of a forum for disagreeable and grumpy people like Statler and Waldorf from the Muppets. Contribute to the wisdom of friends at the DLTV DigiCon conference next month :-)</div><div><br></div><div style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Helvetica;font-size:12px;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;word-wrap:break-word"><a href="http://www.meetup.com/20-40-Friendship-Club/" style="color:rgb(57,135,203);text-decoration:none;margin-top:18px;text-align:center;overflow:hidden;font-family:Whitney,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-size:16px;line-height:22px;background-color:rgb(255,255,255);display:inline!important" target="_blank"><img alt="" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;line-height:0" height="90" width="180" src="cid:C89AAF61-772E-455A-A0BC-789411914006"></a></div><div style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Helvetica;font-size:12px;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;word-wrap:break-word"><br></div><div style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Helvetica;font-size:12px;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;word-wrap:break-word">--</div><div style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Helvetica;font-size:12px;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;word-wrap:break-word"><b>Roland GESTHUIZEN<br></b><a href="http://about.me/rgesthuizen" target="_blank">http://about.me/rgesthuizen</a><br></div></div>
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<br><div><blockquote type="cite"><div>On 16 Jun 2015, at 9:13 am, Laurie Savage <<a href="mailto:08327998@pvgc.vic.edu.au" target="_blank">08327998@pvgc.vic.edu.au</a>> wrote:</div><br><div><div dir="ltr"><div>I've always been dubious about the "wisdom of crowds" since seeing Leni Riefenstahl's movie about the Nuremberg rallies.<br><br></div>Laurie<br></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br clear="all"><div><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div>Laurie Savage<br><a href="https://sites.google.com/a/pvgc.vic.edu.au/mr-savage/home" target="_blank">https://sites.google.com/a/pvgc.vic.edu.au/mr-savage/home</a><br></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
<br><div class="gmail_quote">On 15 June 2015 at 19:59, Roland Gesthuizen <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:rgesthuizen@gmail.com" target="_blank">rgesthuizen@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div style="word-wrap:break-word">In the end, the system worked and the hoax was deleted. Wikipedians are getting better at uncovering hoaxes. If it survived for so long as an obscure page without any sources, it is just hibernating until somebody pokes it with a stick or flags it for removal. There is even a wikipedia page about this:<div><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliability_of_Wikipedia" target="_blank">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reliability_of_Wikipedia</a></div><div><br></div><div><div>Anyway don’t take the front page entirely at face-value. Here are two things that I point out to my students:</div><div><div><br></div><div>1. the discussion page shows up any controversy and the community around a topic. Often this flags issues in this topic that you need to be careful about. Just click on the talk tab.</div><div><br></div><div>2. the list of references and external links at the bottom are sometimes better than the article. If there are none then these should ring some alarm bells.</div><div><br></div><div>Many years ago I started the wikipedia page for an early native Australian cricketer. Top bloke and sportsman. The changes made to this page from my early version speaks volumes for how the "truth” about his life was changed and appropriated as the cultural context and world changed around him. Its a fascinating story i’ll share at the DLTV DigiCON conference next month to anybody who asks.</div><div><br></div><div>Registration is open now folks. Click here for details:</div><div><a href="https://dltv.vic.edu.au/dltv-annual-conference-2015" target="_blank">https://dltv.vic.edu.au/dltv-annual-conference-2015</a></div><div><br></div><div><div><div><div>
<div style="font-family:Helvetica;font-size:12px;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px"><div style="font-family:Helvetica;font-size:12px;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;word-wrap:break-word">—</div><div style="font-family:Helvetica;font-size:12px;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;line-height:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;word-spacing:0px;word-wrap:break-word"><b>Roland GESTHUIZEN<br></b><a href="http://about.me/rgesthuizen" target="_blank">http://about.me/rgesthuizen</a><br></div></div>
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<br><div><blockquote type="cite"><div><div><div>On 24 May 2015, at 2:20 pm, Mark <<a href="mailto:mark@vceit.com" target="_blank">mark@vceit.com</a>> wrote:</div><br></div></div><div><div><div><div dir="ltr"><div>Hi, data-gatherers</div><div><br></div>Next year, students will need to find reliable data to support their U3O2 hypothesis.<div><br></div><div>Obviously, most will start with Wikipedia.</div><div><br></div><div>Here's an enlightening article you might want to acquaint them with...</div><div><br></div><div><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2015/04/15/the-great-wikipedia-hoax/" target="_blank">http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-intersect/wp/2015/04/15/the-great-wikipedia-hoax/</a></div><div><br></div><div>-- <br><div><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div><i><br></i></div><div><span style="font-size:12.6666669845581px">Wikipedia says I'm handsome. Who am I to disagree?</span></div><div><br></div><div>Mark Kelly</div><div>mark AT vceit DOT com</div><div><a href="http://vceit.com/" target="_blank">http://vceit.com</a></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
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